Views:0 Author:Site Editor Publish Time: 2021-09-24 Origin:Site
On the supply side, the Guangxi region requires electrolytic aluminum companies to increase the range of production restrictions. Since the beginning of this year, the supply of electrolytic aluminum has been severely reduced due to the two major factors of power curtailment and dual control. The subsequent heating season may become a new variable affecting supply.
On the cost side, with the continuous depletion of alumina inventory and the reduction of production capacity, the price has risen sharply, and it is expected that the price of alumina will continue to rise in the future.
Consumption is generally tepid, and price increases have largely suppressed the willingness of downstream buyers to obtain goods.
With the advent of the peak season, inventory began to gradually deplete, but the sustainability remains to be tested. The current dual-control policy tends to limit production to the consumer side, and we need to be alert to the risk of a decline in the consumer side. It is expected that subsequent consumption will gradually warm up compared with the previous month, and supply is currently difficult to be put into operation for new additions and resumption of production, and inventory is expected to continue to be depleted.
(1) The LME aluminum inventory the day before yesterday was 1.305 million tons, a decrease of 11,250 tons, accounting for 45.8%; the previous day, the Shanghai aluminum inventory was 96,800 tons, a decrease of 4,856 tons.
(2) According to SMM data, on September 17, China's electrolytic aluminum stocks in major consumer areas were 766,000 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons from last Friday. The increase was mainly concentrated in the Wuxi, Gongyi and Nanhai markets.
(3) Aluminum exports in August were 480,700 tons, an increase of 5% month-on-month and an increase of 27% year-on-year; imports of bauxite were 8.7 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6% and a year-on-year decrease of 16%.
(4) Yunnan issued a notice on dual control of energy consumption, requiring reductions in the production control of the green aluminum industry to ensure that the average monthly output of green aluminum enterprises from September to December is not higher than that in August. Guangxi stipulates that starting from September, the output of electrolytic aluminum shall not exceed 65% of the average monthly output in the first half of the year, which is further reduced by 15%, equivalent to a monthly output of 30,000 tons, and the supply-side interference continues to ferment.
Overall analysis, the results of the Fed's meeting on interest rates are yet to be announced. Market sentiment has eased. Future power shortages are expected to heat up. The logic of future production restrictions is expected to be fermented again. In August, consumption resilience is strong and aluminum prices are strong. In the medium and long term, there is still a possibility that the supply side will continue to shrink, and aluminum prices are expected to hit 25,000 before the end of the year.