Views:0 Author:Site Editor Publish Time: 2021-11-22 Origin:Site
Although the news of housing loan relaxation last week, aluminum prices rebounded, but the sales of housing enterprises have not yet improved. Coupled with the accumulation of aluminum cooperatives, aluminum prices gradually declined, from ￥19,700 to ￥18,300. Last week, Shanghai Aluminum fell 0.6%, and LME fell 0.5%.
The alumina output in October was 6.05 million tons, an increase of 1.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 1.8%; the alumina output from January to October was 59.7 million tons, an increase of 6.6% year-on-year; as the northern heavy rain subsided, the alumina production in October recovered. The air pollution prevention and control in the north, coupled with the pressure on profits, is expected to decline in alumina production.
The output of electrolytic aluminum in October was 3.17 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% and an increase of 1.8% from the previous month; the output from January to October was 32.25 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. The global output of electrolytic aluminum in September was 5.51 million tons, an increase of 2% year-on-year and a decrease of 3% from the previous month; the output from January to September was 50.49 million tons, an increase of 4.1% year-on-year. Aluminum prices rose sharply in October and domestic production increased, but profits fell sharply. Yunnan Wenshan Aluminum Plant failed and 330,000 tons of production capacity was limited. It is expected that electrolytic aluminum output will decline in November. Overseas energy costs are high and profits are under pressure. Dutch aluminum producer Aldel has suspended production until early 2022, with an annual production capacity of 110,000 tons of primary aluminum and 50,000 tons of recycled aluminum.
According to SMM data, as of November 11, the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 1.038 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from last week and an increase of 420,000 tons from the same period last year. Aluminum prices fell sharply, but inventory accumulated again, and the recovery of downstream demand was not stable. However, the downstream operating rate continues to rise, and the demand recovery may continue. In addition, the supply of electrolytic aluminum may decline. It is also a seasonal destocking period. The inflection point may be approaching.
(1) On the supply side: the interference of production restriction policy is still there. Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, Guangxi, Jiangsu and other places have raised electricity prices, and other provinces and cities will gradually increase electricity prices. Aluminum smelting electricity prices will rise, alumina prices will fall, total electrolytic aluminum costs will fall, and enterprise production will be near break-even.
(2) On the demand side: the bottom line of real estate policy has been achieved and the pessimistic expectations are restored, but real estate sales are still under pressure, and it will take time for the bottom line of corporate funds to arrive; the State Council bans all power cuts, coupled with more aluminum price pullbacks, and the downstream operating rate is weak with the rebound, the demand for electrolytic aluminum is weak.
(3) On the whole: electricity prices have been raised in many places. With the advent of winter, demand for thermal coal is improving, prices have gradually stabilized, alumina prices have fallen, and prices of auxiliary materials have risen. The cost of electrolytic aluminum has declined slightly, but it is still strong. Failure, coupled with the decline in corporate profits, may reduce supply. On the demand side, the real estate policy tends to be loose, but it will take time to truly transform into housing data improvement. Demand improvement is weak, and the pressure of electrolytic aluminum storage is relatively high. Be wary of the risk of aluminum price pullback.