Views:1 Author:Site Editor Publish Time: 2021-05-19 Origin:Site
(1) On the supply side: In April 2021, the domestic output was 3.25 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%. In the second quarter, the resumption of production and new investment were promoted, and the domestic production was moving towards an annual output of 40 million tons. The recent shortage of thermal coal has led to the tightening of power supply, and the issue of stability of production needs to be paid attention to.
(2) In terms of demand: the operating rate of building materials aluminum plants increased slightly, and aluminum prices fell.
(3) In terms of inventory: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 54,000 tons from the previous month to 1.061 million tons, and aluminum prices have loosened.
(4) Overall: In April, the US CPPI exceeded expectations, and the domestic emphasis on the excessive rise of bulk raw materials put pressure on aluminum prices at the 20,000 yuan mark. The prices of bulk raw materials have risen rapidly, the gap between PPI and CPI has widened, the downward transmission of prices has not been smooth, and inflationary pressures have continued to rise, which in turn cools consumption and investment enthusiasm, which is negative for bulk prices. Recently, power shortages have begun to become prominent, which has increased the supply interference rate. At the same time, aluminum prices have loosened and the enthusiasm for downstream purchases has rebounded.
Risk factors: dumping policy; currency shift; international tension; increased supply interference
Last week, the U.S. announced that both the CPI and PPI in April exceeded expectations. Although the Fed kept easing off the market, the liquidity easing expectations were not as good as before, and concerns about tightening caused by inflation have revived.
The domestic signal that the prices of bulk commodities have risen too fast, bulk commodities fell in response, and Shanghai Aluminum fell 2.7% this week.
According to data released by the Chinese Customs, China's imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in March were 206,556 tons, an increase of 70.9% year-on-year; the total imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products from January to March were 661,517 tons, a year-on-year increase. 118.8%.
Last week, aluminum prices experienced a major correction. In terms of inventory, the global dominant inventory still maintains a relatively rapid rate, and the global fundamentals are relatively healthy in the short term. Looking ahead, in the short term, domestic supply and demand will be relatively stable in the second quarter. The volume of imported aluminum ingots has decreased in May. It is expected that domestic aluminum ingot inventories will continue to deplete, and aluminum prices may be run strongly. The short-term risk of aluminum prices lies in the dumping of reserves by the State Reserve, which may be as early as May. In terms of consumption, May is still the peak season for consumption in China, and consumption will continue to perform well. June will gradually enter the off-season. From the perspective of domestic supply and demand, there is still a supply gap in May and June. It is expected that inventory will continue to de-dissolve. The overseas economic recovery is still continuing, and short-term overseas consumption is expected to be unimpeded. Under the circumstance of low supply pressure, LME inventory is expected to continue the pace of destocking. In line with the background of short-term stability in domestic supply and demand, aluminum prices are expected to continue to rise.