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Peak load regulation and production restriction in major province, electrolytic aluminum effect will exceed one month

Views:0     Author:Site Editor     Publish Time: 2021-05-20      Origin:Site

Yunnan is one of the provinces with abundant hydropower resources in China, China's electrolytic aluminum enterprises also hope to use cheap green hydropower to reduce their carbon emission intensity, and transfer a large number of electrolytic aluminum production capacity to Yunnan. However, limited hydropower resources may make the local power shortage become normal, especially in the dry season.

According to SMM statistics, by the end of April 2021, Yunnan's electrolytic aluminum production capacity will be 3.86 million tons. The impact of this power restriction is expected to be around 7.6-38 million tons (load reduction of about 2% - 10%), and the impact cycle is expected to be about one month. If the electrolytic aluminum plant is forced to shut down by 10%, the impact cycle is expected to be more than one month due to the time required for restart.

After the supply side reform in 2017, the electrolytic aluminum industry began to reduce production. In 2018, it experienced the tide of electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement, with a total capacity of 2.72 million tons announced to be eliminated and replaced. As of December 2020, the capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China has exceeded 43 million tons / year, and the capacity has approached the red line of compliance capacity, about 45 million tons / year. Under the background of carbon neutralization, the production capacity growth of electrolytic aluminum will be further strictly controlled, and the growth space in the next few years is expected to be very limited. Under the policy of "carbon peak, carbon neutral", the profit elasticity of electrolytic aluminum industry is higher than that of steel, glass, etc.

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