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Poor logistics lead to continued decline in aluminum prices

Views: 0     Author: Site Editor     Publish Time: 2022-04-11      Origin: Site

Domestic spot aluminum market:

In this period, the domestic spot aluminum price showed a trend of first falling, then rising and then falling, and the end of the period showed a downward trend compared with the end of the previous period. As of April 14, the domestic spot aluminum price was 21,440 yuan/ton, down 560 yuan/ton or 2.55% from the end of the previous period, and up 3,690 yuan/ton or 20.79% from the same period last year. The main reasons affecting the trend of spot aluminum prices in this period are: first, domestic transportation in East China is still sluggish, access to warehouses is limited, market supply and demand are both weak, and the support for aluminum prices is not high, which drags down aluminum prices; second, domestic The electrolytic aluminum manufacturers are actively resuming production capacity due to the attraction of profits. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production continues to increase, which will bring a certain drag on aluminum prices. Third, the inventory in some parts of the country continues to accumulate, which will bring a certain drag on aluminum prices. Fourth, The lack of news in the international market, the weakening of the international aluminum price, and the lack of driving the domestic aluminum price.

Aluminum Processing Market:

The price of aluminum products in this period basically showed a trend of first falling, then rising and then falling, and the end of the period fell compared with the end of the previous period. Taking Shandong 3003 aluminum plate as an example, as of April 14, the mainstream price of 3003 aluminum plate in Shandong was 24,070 yuan / ton, down 560 yuan / ton from the end of the previous period, a decrease of 2.27%; compared with the same period last year, an increase of 3,670 yuan / ton, an increase was 17.99%. During the period, the price of electrolytic aluminum continued to decline, dragging down the price of aluminum products. On the whole, the transportation in the domestic market is limited, the production of processing plants is not smooth, and the market demand is weakened, which has dragged down the price of aluminum products.china 50861 aluminum coil - YuanfarAluminum

Aluminum Inventory:

The domestic spot aluminum inventory in this period increased compared with the end of the previous period. As of Thursday, the domestic spot aluminum inventory was 1.067 million tons, an increase of 60,000 tons from the end of the previous period and a decrease of 348,000 tons from the same period last year. Among them, Shanghai remained stable at 87,000 tons, Nanhai decreased by 2,000 tons to 240,000 tons, Wuxi increased by 14,000 tons to 538,000 tons, Hangzhou remained stable at 87,000 tons, and Gongyi decreased by 6,000 tons to 115,000 tons.

The start-up of electrolytic aluminum smelting enterprises:

The current production capacity of electrolytic aluminum plants continued to increase. Aluminum plants in Yunnan continue to promote the release of production resumption capacity, and the release of new production capacity is in progress. The production capacity of Haixin, Shenhuo and other companies has basically reached or will reach full production. Resumption of production in other regions is also ongoing. During the period, although the aluminum price continued to decline, the profit of the aluminum plant decreased but still maintained a good profit. The attractiveness of the resumption of production of the aluminum plant is still good, and the resumption of production of the aluminum plant will continue. However, the electrolytic aluminum industry still bears the brunt of the new policies on electricity consumption during the peak period of electricity consumption, and it is not ruled out that there will still be limited production in the later period.

Alumina Market:

In this issue, the overall price of alumina in the country did not fluctuate much, with some areas rising slightly. As of the fourth of the current period, the price in the northern region has risen by 20 yuan/ton to between 2940-3070 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.67%; the price of alumina in the southwest region is stable at the current price range of 2970-3040 yuan/ton. The listed price of China Aluminum is temporarily suspended in this issue. As of the fourth of this issue, the mainstream quotation in the domestic spot market is 2940-3070 yuan / ton. From the perspective of the average price trend, the average price of alumina products in the current period was 3,002 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.50% month-on-month. The main factors affecting the alumina market in the near future are: first, affected by the upgrading of logistics and transportation management and control in Shanxi, there are difficulties in the delivery of alumina, and the current supply of goods in the northern alumina spot market is very limited; second, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the northwest region have recently made inquiries The willingness to receive goods has increased; thirdly, the operation rate of alumina production capacity in the southwest region is difficult to improve due to the shortage of bauxite.

Aluminum alloy ingot market:

This week, the price of Jiangxi Baotai aluminum alloy ingots dropped by 300 yuan/ton compared with last week. The average price of ADC12 this Thursday was 21,000 yuan/ton, the average price of Alsi9Cu3 was 21,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of A380 was 21,800 yuan/ton. Factors affecting the price of aluminum alloy ingots this week: aluminum alloy ingots fell first and then rose this week. At present, aluminum alloy ingot manufacturers are operating at a low level, and most manufacturers have plans to reduce production. First, raw material procurement is limited, material resources are tight, and prices are running at high levels; The demand of alloy ingot manufacturers is weak; third, the cost of manufacturers is high, the profit margin is limited or even loss, and the production enthusiasm is weak. It is expected that the price of aluminum alloy ingots will fluctuate mainly next week.

Scrap Aluminium Market:

This week, the market price of scrap aluminum in Shandong has dropped by 300-1000 yuan/ton. The price of scrap aluminum bright wire was 18,900 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan/ton from last week, and the price of door and window materials was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan/ton from last week. The price of automobile wheels was 18,200 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from last week. The main factors affecting the price fluctuation of scrap aluminum this week: the price of scrap aluminum mainly fell this week, and rebounded slightly at the weekend. Spot aluminum manufacturers continue to release supply under the stimulation of profits, but poor road traffic in some areas hinders manufacturers' shipments, which makes aluminum prices mainly drop. Driven by the price of aluminum, the price of cooked aluminum fell rapidly by about 5%. Raw aluminum fell 1.62%. Scrap aluminum resources are tight, especially cooked aluminum, and traders have few recycling and distribution sales, and downstream manufacturers have limited sales of finished products. Some manufacturers have stopped or reduced production to reduce costs. Scrap aluminum is expected to be the main shock next week.

Aluminum market forecast:

The current aluminum price continued to decline, mainly due to the weak supply and demand in the market under the influence of poor domestic logistics. In terms of supply, domestic aluminum plants continue to resume production, production will continue to grow, imports will weaken, except in East China, transportation conditions have improved, and the supply of aluminum ingots can be maintained, which will support or strengthen aluminum prices. In terms of demand, recently attracted by low aluminum prices, processing plants in Guangdong and Henan have been actively receiving goods, and the demand has improved, which has strengthened the support for aluminum prices in the future. In terms of cost, alumina has maintained a stable operation recently, with little overall change. The price increase of anode has slowed down, and the cost has increased or slowed down, which has limited support for aluminum prices. On the macro level, global inflation data continued to be hot during the period, non-US central banks started operations, the dollar rose first and then fell, and non-ferrous prices were mixed. Domestic transportation links restrict supply and demand. Zhuo Chuang Information predicts that the price of non-ferrous metals may continue to fluctuate and adjust in the next issue. In terms of spot goods, during the period, East China was affected by transportation problems, and the trading atmosphere was not good. However, Guangdong Ge Henan and other places were attracted by the falling aluminum price, the market's willingness to receive goods generally increased, and the overall market transaction atmosphere has warmed up, which has strengthened the support for aluminum prices. . Looking at the market outlook, except for East China, the logistics situation in other regions has gradually improved, and manufacturers in some regions have replenished or increased. It is expected that the aluminum price may maintain a rebound and upward trend next week, or operate between 21,000-23,500 yuan / ton.

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