Views:1 Author:Site Editor Publish Time: 2021-12-01 Origin:Site
The downstream demand structure of electrolytic aluminum is mainly in the fields of construction real estate, transportation, electricity, consumption, machinery and packaging, among which the total demand for construction real estate and transportation and electricity accounted for more than 73%. At present, the downstream consumption of aluminum is relatively stable, and the construction of photovoltaic and other projects will become a new growth point for aluminum demand.
In the middle of this year, due to the lack of chips in cars, car production has declined, and sales have recently recovered. According to the latest data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in September, China's automobile production and sales were 2.077 million and 2.067 million, down 17.9% and 19.6% year-on-year, respectively; however, the month-on-month increase was 20.4% and 14.9% respectively, and the shortage of chip supply has alleviated.
The 2021 edition of the "New Energy Vehicle Blue Book" predicts that China's auto sales will reach 30 million in 2025, and the average annual growth rate of auto sales in 2020-2025 will be about 3.46%. According to CM Group's forecast, in 2022, China's automotive industry will see a year-on-year growth of approximately 8% in aluminum for bicycles. Automobile emission reduction and weight reduction, as well as the promotion of aluminum for new energy vehicles, are expected to drive the growth of aluminum for automobiles.
Last year, the demand for aluminum in the power sector accounted for about 16%. Traditional power demand was generally stable. The main demand highlight in the future will be the increase in aluminum consumption brought about by photovoltaic installations. The brackets used in the photovoltaic system are all aluminum profiles. According to Wood Mac's forecast, every GW of photovoltaic construction needs 21,000 tons; based on this calculation, China's domestic photovoltaic aluminum will be about 1 million tons in 2020 (the domestic new photovoltaic installations will be 48.2GW in 2020). The China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts and optimistically predicts that in 2021, China's domestic PV installed capacity will be 55GW and 65GW respectively; in 2025, China's domestic PV installed capacity will be 90GW and 110GW respectively. Based on this calculation, it is estimated that China's domestic photovoltaic aluminum will be 1.155 million tons and 1.365 million tons this year, and the corresponding photovoltaic aluminum will be 1.89 million tons and 2.31 million tons by 2025. From 2020 to 2025, the compound growth rate of photovoltaic aluminum demand will be 13% and 18% respectively.
It is estimated that the demand for electrolytic aluminum next year will be about 42.02 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%; based on the aforementioned assumptions, the use of aluminum for construction and real estate will grow by 5% year-on-year, and the use of aluminum in transportation will increase by 8%. The growth rate of aluminum is expected to be 9%, and other power investments remain unchanged. In addition, consumption, machinery, packaging, and other fields are expected to grow by 2%. The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply including net imports and dumping reserves is expected to be 42.44 million to 43.06 million tons (production 40.64 million to 41.26 million tons), an increase of 4.3%-5.8% year-on-year. It is expected that the supply of electrolytic aluminum will slightly exceed demand in 2022 risk.