Views:0 Author:Site Editor Publish Time: 2021-05-12 Origin:Site
(1) On the supply side: In April 2021, the domestic output was 3.25 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%. In the second quarter, the resumption of production and new investment were promoted, and the domestic production was moving towards an annual output of 40 million tons. Concerned about the policy of shutting down small power units impacts the stability of aluminum factories.
(2) In terms of demand: the operating rate of factory increased slightly, but it was restrained by high aluminum prices, the number of new orders weakened.
(3) In terms of inventory: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was flat at 1.115 million tons from the previous month. Under the suppression of high prices, the destocking of aluminum ingots has slowed down significantly in the past two weeks.
(4) Overall: In the context of optimistic expectations of overseas economic recovery and the Fed's no rush to withdraw from quantitative easing, non-ferrous metals have accelerated rise to high levels, deviating from supply and demand to a certain extent. The price of bulk raw materials has risen rapidly, the difference between PPI and CPI has widened, the downward transmission of prices is not smooth, and inflationary pressures continue to rise, which will eventually force the tightening of liquidity to come early, which in turn will cool the enthusiasm for consumption and investment, and affect the composition of bulk prices. In view of the current resumption and the acceleration of new investments, strong supply growth, and high prices restraining consumption, the extent of destocking has slowed down significantly, and once liquidity tightening is expected to take shape, it is not conducive to further price increases.
Risk factors: dumping policy; currency turn; international situation is tense; supply interference increases.
Aluminum prices continue to run strongly, and aluminum ingot inventories are less than expected, triggering a sharp rise in domestic prices. Looking ahead, in the short term, domestic supply and demand will be relatively stable in the second quarter. The volume of imported aluminum ingots has decreased in May. It is expected that domestic aluminum ingot inventories will continue to deplete, and aluminum prices may be increased. The risk of short-term aluminum prices lies in the dumping of inventories by the National Reserve Bureau, possibly as early as May.
In the medium term, high aluminum prices and high profits have made domestic new production capacity more enthusiastic. It is expected that domestic supply pressure will gradually increase in June, while consumption will gradually enter the off-season, and aluminum prices may face major adjustments by then. The overseas economic recovery is still continuing, and short-term overseas consumption is expected to have no impact. Under the situation of low supply pressure, LME inventory is expected to continue the pace of destocking. In line with the background of short-term stability in domestic supply and demand, aluminum prices are expected to continue to rise.